After the Super Tuesday 3, Donald Trump’s near-sweep in Republican primaries gave him a commanding lead in the race to accumulate the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination. But does that mean Trump should be considered his party’s presumptive nominee? Not quite. The unique circumstances around this year’s presidential election mean a contested convention is likely and that the topsy-turvy Republican primary could get even more unusual.
Can any other Republican beat Trump before July?
Probably not. It is mathematically impossible for Ohio governor John Kasich to reach the 1,237 delegate target (he currently has 143), while Texas senator Ted Cruz – who has 411 – faces an uphill battle that would have to culminate in the Texas senator winning at least 55% of the vote in California’s June primary to just barely clinch the GOP nomination. Trump currently has 673 delegates.
So Trump will be the nominee?
Not necessarily. It’s quite likely that no one, including Trump, will reach the magic number. Right now, the bombastic billionaire is on pace to finish about 80 delegates short if current trends hold up. That means, unless Trump is able to attract a significant number of unbound delegates – those who previously supported other candidates or who were elected without pledging to support a candidate – the Republican convention in July will start without a presumptive nominee.
How would that work?
It would involve several steps. First, an RNC committee would meet ahead of time to finalize the rules, which aren’t formally set until the convention convenes. There would be all levels of gamesmanship here as campaigns jockey for advantage and either change or maintain the provisional rules that have governed the primary so far.
This would probably end in an ugly fight on the floor of the convention where delegates (almost of whom are selected in a process separate from the actual primary) are free to vote on the rules however they want. This means candidates pledged to Trump could vote for rule changes that might hurt the frontrunner.
Then there would eventually be a first ballot, where no one would get a majority. After that would come anarchy. Most delegates are pledged to candidates only for the first ballot. After that, they can vote for whoever they please and throw open the convention.
So who might the Republican nominee be in that case?
It could be anyone. It could be Trump, Cruz or Kasich. It could be 2012 duo Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan. It could be Dick Cheney or Kim Kardashian. As long as a candidate gets the support of 1,237 delegates, they can be the nominee. This is not to say that nominating someone who didn’t participate in the primaries wouldn’t cause a major rift in the party; Trump himself has suggested there would be riots (“I wouldn’t lead [them]”).
It’s simply that it’s theoretically possible and anything can happen if the convention goes to a second ballot and beyond.
How would Trump react to that?
It’s hard to predict how Donald Trump would react to almost anything, but if he was to consider mounting a third-party candidacy there would be major obstacles in his way. By the time the GOP’s convention opens on 18 July, it will be too late for him to file to run as a third-party candidate in 11 states; 14 other states have deadlines a mere two weeks after the convention. All have signature requirements as well, many of which are difficult to meet; they range from a mere 800 names required in New Jersey to more than 178,000 in California.
If Trump were to manage a run as a third-party nominee, he would certainly split the Republican vote and let Hillary Clinton into the White House. And, even if he didn’t, it’s likely the ill feelings over a divided party and a contested convention –especially if the nominee didn’t participate in the primary process – would alienate enough voters to ensure Clinton’s election as well
So it sounds like the Republicans are damned if they do, damned if they don’t?
Yes, barring a huge surge by Cruz, the two most likely ways that voting in the Republican primary will end is with Donald Trump as the nominee or with no nominee at all. The question for Republican loyalists is which scenario they fear the most.
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