It was a huge night for the Clinton and Trump campaigns. Clinton won four of five states and a slew of elected delegates. Trump won all five states up for grabs and probably every delegate outside of Rhode Island (which allocated its delegates proportionally). Moreover, many of the delegate candidates Trump endorsed in the loophole primary in Pennsylvania did well. We’ll have more on the Republican race in a separate post from Nate, but let’s talk more about Clinton’s big wins.
Donald Trump swept primaries in five states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night, with Hillary Clinton close behind with four victories of her own. It was a night that solidified the position of both presidential front-runners, although none of their rivals were ready to concede the race just yet.
Trump won all five states: Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Rhode Island and Connecticut.
Clinton won four states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
Bernie Sanders won one state, Rhode Island.
The results were long-anticipated: Trump has polled well in Northeastern and mid-Atlantic states for months. And Clinton matched her strong showing into the polls heading into Super Tuesday as well, although Sanders' victory in Rhode Island stopped her from getting a sweep of her own.
Clinton extended her delegate lead by what looks to be about 50 elected delegates. She did so thanks mostly to Maryland and Pennsylvania. She won by about 30-percentage points in Maryland (where she’ll pick up about 30 elected delegates) and more than 10 percentage points in Pennsylvania (where she’ll pick up about 20 elected delegates). Clinton will likely pick up a net of about 2 elected delegates in Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island combined.
Clinton did well tonight for the same reasons that she performed well in previous primaries. She won 68 percent or more of the black vote in Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania (Delaware and Rhode Island didn’t have exit polls). She also won two-thirds or more of voters making more than $200,000 in both Connecticut and Maryland (there was no $200,000+ crosstab in Pennsylvania).
Simply put, the contests tonight followed the already established demographic patterns of the Democratic race. That’s very bad for Sanders.
When you combine Clinton’s net 50 delegate victory tonight with the 235 elected delegate lead she had before tonight, Clinton holds a lead of about 285 elected delegates. That’s a huge lead. In order for Sanders to catch up, he’ll have to win 64 percent of the remaining elected delegates. That seems quite unlikely given the polling that is out there. In fact, I think it’s fair to say that barring a miracle, Clinton will have more elected delegates at the end of the primary season than Sanders.
Add in Clinton’s even larger edge among superdelegates, and Clinton is the presumptive nominee. That was mostly clear before tonight, and it’s crystal clear now. Now, that doesn’t mean Sanders needs to quit the race. In fact, all indications are he will stay in. But he’s staying in without a real path to the nomination, so don’t be surprised if he cuts down on the more negative attacks on Clinton.
No comments:
Post a Comment